Latest Employment Data: Good or Bad?

Each month here on the Blawg, we update all the latest employment indicators in the handy box to the right within nanoseconds of their release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Here’s the latest . . .
Employment Situation Up

According to the government’s official figures, total nonfarm payroll employment was up 244,000. The private sector added 268,000 jobs — the most in years and above the 200,000 figure economists say is needed to sustain growth.

Since a recent lull in February 2010, total payroll employment has grown 1.8 million, with private employment up 2.1 million.

Where were the job gains? Here you go:

• Retail (up 57,000) (general merchandise, electronics and appliance stores)
• Professional & business services (up 51,000) (management, technical consulting and computer systems design)
• Leisure & hospitality (up 46,000) (food and beverage services)
• Health care (up 37,000) (ambulatory care and hospitals)
• Manufacturing (up 29,000) (machinery, metals and computer/electronics products)
• Mining (up 11,000) (support activities)

Unemployment Up  (Barely)
The unemployment rate edged up slightly from 8.8% to 9.0% but is still 0.8% below November’s level. The number of unemployed rose to 13.7 million.

Unemployment remains far beyond the 6% rate considered “full employment” by most economists.
Labor Force Participation Virtually Unchanged

Many economists feel that the unemployment rate is somewhat misleading due to what the data omits. Instead, some rely more heavily on overall labor force participation and the employment-population ratio. Labor force participation remained unchanged at 64.2% for the fourth consecutive month. The employment-population ratio was down a hair to 58.4%.

Another number examined by economists is “discouraged workers” (those not currently seeking employment because they believe no work is available). That number was 989,000, up 7% over last month but down 208,000 from a year ago.
Employment Outlook Positive

My favorite indicator — ManpowerGroup’s quarterly Employment Outlook Survey — is +8% and positive in all 50 states and all 13 industry sectors. ”Nearly all of the key data points in our survey show that employers are positive, but hiring plans are still reserved due to their continued ability to manage the slowly increasing demand with the existing workforce,” said Jonas Prising, Manpower president of the Americas. “In the U.S., we are holding on to hard-won job gains and waiting for the time when the growth in demand for goods and services will require more substantial workforce additions.”

What Does This All Mean?

Jobs up. But unemployment’s up, too? What does that mean?
“The edged up unemployment rate from 8.8 percent to 9.0 percent, while important, is not as strong of an indicator at this point in the in economic cycle as new jobs created,” said Jeff Joerres, ManpowerGroup’s Chairman and CEO. “An improving labor market leads to increased individual confidence, and therefore, more job seekers. This means it’s possible that we could see the unemployment rate continue to inch up before heading back down.”

ManpowerGroup continues to report on the talent crisis affecting organizations worldwide through its annual Talent Shortage Survey. Look for the 2011 report in coming weeks.
Stay tuned for more.

(Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Wall Street Journal, ManpowerGroup)

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http://manpowerblogs.com/toth/